What will affect bitcoin price more?
Thoughts on bitcoin price post halving - April 2020
April 24, 2020, 4:43 p.m.
I recently read this very insightful analysis on the — "Vulnerabilities in the Price of Bitcoin Driven by Miners".
I highly recommend it.
Here are some key takeaways, quoted from their analysis.
The assertion that there is a price floor in Bitcoin created by the breakeven price of a Bitcoin Miners' cost of production is inaccurate. Price support is actually established by miner capitulation and a net reduction in hash power on the network-favorable difficulty adjustments.
Impact of halving
Improvement in Demand Side Economics due to Halving Induced Positive Sentiment — The Human Psychology of the Bitcoin Market Participants, prior to Halving, is to lean bullish. This creates a positive sentiment on the demand side of Bitcoin.
Improvement in Supply-Side Economics — Miners are the main driving force of sell pressure on the Bitcoin Network. Post-Mid-May, 50% of the potential daily sell pressure from miners will be removed from the market.
Opportunistic Environments Capitalized on by Access to Debt — Post-halving after sustained periods of trading below the average cost of production, there will be an inevitable capitulation and difficulty adjustment leading to only the more efficient miners with healthier balance sheets surviving. The surviving miners now receive a higher proportion of the mined bitcoin than previously at a cheaper cost of production; creating a more profitable environment for miners to operate in. Now miners can hold their Bitcoin rather than selling thus reducing more of the sustained daily sell pressure from the network.
— Follow me at @nithinkrishh, Magizhchi.